Doomwatch!… Is a storm forming in the Gulf? 31 Aug 202631 Aug 2026 TL;DR: Is a storm forming in the Gulf? Maybe. Is a threat? Probably not, but it's complicated. I am sometimes accused of downplaying storm threats, but understand my perspective is…
Tropical Cyclones Elevated levels of “meh” in the Atlantic; Pacific active but no threats 30 Aug 202630 Aug 2026 TL;DR: NHC has the blob in the Gulf at 20%, but does advise TX/LA to "monitor." Storm formerly known as Dolly moving through northern Caribbean, just a rain thing. Elsewhere…
Uncategorized Blob watch returns to the Atlantic, Pacific isn’t. 29 Aug 202629 Aug 2026 After a few hours of no blobs on the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, two low probability blobs returned to keep the clicks going for the doomscrolling community. The disturbance formerly…
Tropical Cyclones NHC discontinues advisories on Dolly 28 Aug 202628 Aug 2026 At 11am today (Friday) NHC discontinued advisories on Dolly since it has degenerated into an open wave. What does that mean? In order to be classified as a tropical cyclone,…
Tropical Cyclones Dolly update for Friday Morning 28 Aug 202628 Aug 2026 Tropical Storm Dolly is a small area of convection in the midst of a broad pinwheel of clouds on the visual satellite image as the sun rises over the Atlantic…
Tropical Cyclones NHC Starts advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly 27 Aug 202627 Aug 2026 As expected NHC started advisories on AL042026, Tropical Storm Dolly. Dolly is expected to be short lived ... Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Dolly (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here's my…
Tropical Cyclones Saudel near landfall, AL96 may briefly become a storm today 27 Aug 202627 Aug 2026 TL;DR: the blob in the Atlantic is still at 70% chance of spinup per NHC, looks more organized this morning but is about to hit an unfavorable environment. Typhoon Saudel…
Tropical Cyclones No hand-holding today … 26 Aug 202626 Aug 2026 Swamped, so no hand holding. Unless you're in China no tropical worries. Done. Typhoon Saudel has crossed the Ryuku Islands, leaving mudslides, some damage, and a few injuries in its…
Tropical Cyclones Red Blob of Doom in the Atlantic! Pacific remains active 25 Aug 202625 Aug 2026 TL;DR: increasing potential for a storm in the Atlantic, but likely to be of interest to fish and fish related activities. Pacific is super busy. And some reminders about how…
Administrative Test GFS/ECM viewer online 24 Aug 202624 Aug 2026 I've set up a test viewer for the GFS and ECM deterministic, and ECM AIFS, at this link. It's not linked anywhere else right now, this is just for testing…
