TL;DR: the blob in the Atlantic is still at 70% chance of spinup per NHC, looks more organized this morning but is about to hit an unfavorable environment. Typhoon Saudel is weakening and nearing landfall near Wenzhou, China.
Starting in the Atlantic, INVEST area AL96 is looking a bit more organized this morning on both visual and infrared images … recall that in the (properly!) color coded IR images, you will see a temperature index, the colder temperatures near the center of circulation indicate more convection and a stronger storm:
The modeling is surprisingly tight this morning, taking the system straight across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean …
But remember the tracks are only one part of the story: the intensity is the other half, and in this case, most of the guidance doesn’t show much more than a weak tropical storm:
If it does spin up, in one of those weird coincidences that happens sometimes, the next name on the Atlantic list is Dolly. There are some who are saying that name shouldn’t be used because Dolly Parton passed away this week. I think that’s silly: she’d probably get a kick out of it.
Expect NHC to initiate advisories on this thing today, but it will likely be short lived, unlike the reputation of her namesake.
Typhoon Saudel is nearing landfall in China tonight (Asia time), fortunately weaker than it has been. Still likely to produce some wind damage and flash flooding in the mountainous areas of China …
East Pacific has a lot of disturbances, but no active storms except Lala, which is way out in the northeast Pacific now far from land.
As most of you know, my musical tastses are pretty firmly in the metal, classical, or folk-metal categories 😛 … but there is no doubting the impact that Dolly Parton has had on music and American culture. She also seems to have genuinely been one of those people who tried to “give back” to the community she came from. So in tribute here’s the incomparable Anneke Van Giersbergen singing “Jolene” …
Why “incomparable”? Check out this clip … (bit of spicy language warning):
And this one which is more metal, with Amorphis …
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