NHC Starts advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly

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As expected NHC started advisories on AL042026, Tropical Storm Dolly. Dolly is expected to be short lived … Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Dolly (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s my TAOS(tm)/TC model impact map based on the first official forecast:

Map displaying the predicted storm impacts of Tropical Storm Dolly in the Atlantic, showing its projected path, affected regions, and potential wind damage levels.

Tracking is tight …

Weather map showing the projected track of Hurricane Dolly with various forecast models outlined in different colors.

… but the intensity forecast is just as big a story. Chances are, Dolly will deteriorate into a strong tropical wave before it reaches the Caribbean. Here is the GFS 90 hour forecast wind/pressure map, all you can see of the storm is a “kink” in the lines and bit of wind near Puerto Rico.

Map showing the GFS 90-hour forecast of wind speed and surface pressure over the Atlantic, featuring continental and oceanic regions, with various colors indicating wind intensity.

Still, everyone in the Northern Caribbean is advised to “monitor.” Dolly may be a rare “good” storm, in that wind/wave impacts should be light, but it may bring much needed rain to the region. Puerto Rico is in a severe drought, with water rationing in some areas:

U.S. Drought Monitor map displaying drought conditions in Puerto Rico, with color-coded classifications for varying drought intensities including Abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate Drought (D1), Severe Drought (D2), Extreme Drought (D3), and Exceptional Drought (D4).

Dolly might help, with the rain swath hopefully passing over the island. I’m sure she’d appreciate that …

Map showing the GFS 96-hour forecast of 6-hour precipitation totals for the Eastern Caribbean, with color gradients indicating varying precipitation amounts.

As a side note, here is what NHC had to say in the Forecast Discussion this morning:

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental.  Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee.  The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

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