Helene remains a strong Category One hurricane this morning with winds of 80kt (90mph. While a large system, it still hasn’t been able get the core of the storm organized and therefore spin up the winds as NHC expects it to begin to do throughout the day. Here is the infrared view at 5am (the sun isn’t up yet over the storm) – you can see that while an organized eye structure is trying to form it can’t quite pull it off yet:
The forecast hasn’t really changed that much since NHC bumped up the forecast landfall winds yesterday afternoon. Helene is moving across some very warm water and at the moment is in a low shear environment that should be quite favorable for intensification. NHC still has the storm peaking as a Category Four hurricane before landfall (115kts, or 130mph), with landfall around midnight tonight. Here is the impact swath as estimated by my TAOS(tm) TC model, using the NHC forecast track:
On the Gulf coast you really need to take this seriously – right on the coast storm surges could reach 6 meters (20 feet). If the winds reach the levels expected, there will be catastrophic damage to the Big Bend area from Cedar Key to Panama City, including Tallahassee, The impacts will extend inland into southwest Georgia communities like Thomasville, Moultrie, Valdosta, Tifton, Albany can expect a lot of damage. Indeed, if the storm holds together as NHC expects, significant damage could extend inland to the Macon and even Atlanta areas. Definitely follow the guidance of your local emergency management officials.
As you might guess, any storm that can cause widespread outages, trees down, etc. is going to hurt agriculture. It is harvest season for many crops, and this is going to make a mess, and tree crops like pecans are going to take a big hit.After landfall impacts across south Georgia will be extensive. The GA/FL border is less than 50 miles from the coast at that point. That’s barely bigger than the forecast eye diameter for Helene at landfall! As the power outage map shows, most of central Georgia will see significant outages, and the area around Albany to Tifton to Valdosta and south to the border will likely see network damage, resulting in long term outages. There will be significant (multi-day) outages probably well into the Atlanta area.
So what can coastal Georgia and South Carolina expect? Really the forecast hasn’t changed much, so if some of this seems familiar it’s because I copypastaed bits and pieces of it from yesterday to avoid having to type so much (but I did add/edit so see if you can figure out what’s different 😛 )…
Helene has a very large wind swath, so there will be impacts across the area. There will be a significant gradient in impacts if this track holds up. The far southern coast, around Brunswick, will see higher winds and storm surges right on the coast, with scattered to widespread power outages possible. It should not be catastrophic or dangerous with some common sense, but hazardous to be out in it. Conditions will begin to deteriorate late this afternoon, with the worst impacts of middle tropical storm strength overnight Thursday. Rain should slack off after 2am, but winds will still be high through sunrise.
For Savannah, effects of Helene are already starting but will really kick in after lunch and conditions deteriorate during the day, especially late in the day (after 5pm). Overnight will be noisy with gusty winds and rain showers, peaking around 2am. The rain should end by sunrise Friday, with a blustery day as the storm passes. Expect some tornado warnings overnight. And expect scattered, maybe even widespread power outages, especially as you move inland.
The heart and soul of the region, the Frogmore Metroplex (Beaufort, HHI) will likely see a bit less in the way of impacts. Blustery winds, periods of heavy rain, maybe flirt with tropical storm conditions right on the beaches.
The blend of models used on the NWS site and official forecast for the area does say winds 30 gusting to 62mph or so. A brief gust that high in a thunderstorm is possible – we get them in thunderstorms around here frequently, so that’s not actually as scary as it sounds. Sustained winds around 30, and we expect about six to eight hours of that overnight, will certainly cause power outages, limbs down, maybe the odd tree or two, but while making a big mess, as long as you can resist the ‘Lt. Dan’ re-enactment, it is inconvenient for most, hazardous for a few, but not generally dangerous if you just hunker down at home.
Inland wind conditions and rain totals will increase as you move up the I-16 corridor, so more power outages and more limbs and trees down. The other side of Swainsboro things will be a major mess if the forecast holds up.
Storm surge shouldn’t be a big issue on the east coast. The astronomical tide cycle is in between spring tides (the moon is just past last quarter), so the added water levels should remain below flood levels. The highest should be this afternoon between 4 and 5pm; at the Fort Pulaski gauge it is estimated at 9.2ft, which is just below the 9.5ft level where minor flooding starts in limited areas. So for coastal flooding, unless you flood during spring tides, you shouldn’t flood from Helene. Coastal flooding near Brunswick, but again the tides and wind geometries shouldn’t cause extensive flooding.
Inland in the urbanized areas the usual places where there is urban flooding will likely see brief periods of flooded streets, but Helene isn’t a Debby, so the kinds of extreme flooding we saw a few weeks ago isn’t in the cards. Across the coast we can expect around 3 to 4″ of rain:
The thing people seem to be afraid of are tornadoes. They come quickly and are unpredictable. SPC has the region in an “enhanced” risk category, which is in the middle of the scale.
That is because the winds coming off the water and the interaction with land in the northeast quadrant of the storm has the potential to develop vorticity, spawning tornadoes. But keep in mind that tornadoes forming within hurricane wind fields tend to be short lived and weaker – F0 or F1. These are not your “Wizard of Oz” type Kansas monsters. They can be dangerous to mobile homes or cars, but in general a reasonably well build home, while it might get some roof or exterior damage, will protect you just fine. The risk here is if a tree falls on you, but while those kinds of incidents are scary, tragic, and get a lot of publicity, in the big picture the risk of that is statistically far lower than your annual risk of driving on Abercorn (yes, I did the math, scroll down about halfway to see the numbers).
While many are “dooming” on this storm, it is important to consider that there is also reason to be not as pessimistic. To be clear, hope isn’t a plan, and you should prepare for the impacts in the official forecast, but it is just as possible the storm will not organize and strengthen as expected, and will collapse faster on landfall. I don’t want to go too far away from the official forecast here, because again that’s what you should plan on, but if it’s not that bad, it’s not “luck”, it’s just the uncertainty in the forecast. (On the other hand, those basement dwelling doomers who are exaggerating the potential impacts for clicks, trash them all you like and be sure to ignore them next time).
Thanks so much for all who have contributed! If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media miasma.
1 Comment