Not a lot changed with the 5pm NHC update, except they again edged up the landfall intensity by 5 knots to 115kts/130mph, or a minimal Category Four storm. Helene does seem to be organizing this afternoon, and it is a very large storm …
The bottom line in terms of impacts hasn’t changed a lot since 11am, so the post from this morning and the update at noon are still valid for impacts. I’ll do a big update in the morning.
Meanwhile, here are two articles I posted this afternoon that might be interesting and are very important to understand about hurricanes in general and Helene specifically:
What does Rapid Intensification mean, and is it as scary as it sounds?
The Air is the Air, what can be done? (wind speeds and how the media gets them wrong)
Thanks so much for all who have contributed! If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media sewer.