ZOMG THE TRACK CHANGED!!! OK, not really, but people who can’t read maps or understand forecasts seem to think so. Here is a comparison of the current and two previous NHC forecast tracks:
One of the big issues is that the storm is moving across the earth, which contrary to popular believe is not flat – it’s an oblate spheroid (football shaped, but you can think of it as “round” 😛 ). Most of the shifts you are seeing are because the official forecast positions are only every 12 hours, and so it is following a curve. If you plot it as straight lines you can get duped and think there is a shift when there isn’t. if you plot the forecast wind swath and spline the line, it hasn’t changed much. Notice how the wind swath seem to diverge from the official fixes; that’s because the model understands the curvature of the earth …
That said, there has been a slight eastward shift in the model guidance. Here is a plot of that, with the actual position fixes from satellite – notice how those jump around:
Consider that this is a big storm, the center is still starting to really come together, take a look at this satellite animation loop:
So the guidance is going to wobble around as the initial fixes wobble. As I constantly rant, watch for trends. not for wobbles. These wobbles and track “shifts” so far are just normal noise, not some indication the forecast is busted. If it keeps up maybe it would be something to worry about, but even then the forecast impacts aren’t likely to change, especially for Frogmore (and us other less fortunate neighbors in Savannah/HHI/Beaufort and the bucolic inland areas).
We’ve had a lot more rain this morning in Savannah than forecast – a couple of big cells tracked right across the city, and the gauge here in the Enki office is reading just over 3.25″ at the moment in a heavy rain and some high wind gusts. That seems consistent with the radar estimates, although there seems to be a streak of maybe 5″ across the southside. That does mean there is a lot more potential for street flooding, and the forecast was for only about 3″ storm total. At least the tides are not super high, and the rain will be in waves like it has been so far to give things time to drain.
For those of you who are in the thrall of inebriated ungulates or others who frantically beg you to hit refresh and pontificate on every wobble or track model change (which incidentally maximizes blipvert profits), I have some gentle advice:
You’re really not doing yourself (or those you spread the anxiety to) any favors. NHC does forecasts every 6 hours, with a 3 hour update when storms approach land, for a reason. Things rarely change any faster and when they do, you often don’t know if it’s a wobble or a trend. It’s not like any of this is actionable if you’ve paid attention and prepared for hurricane season and the published watches and warnings. Watch for trends, not wobbles.
Thanks so much for all who have contributed! If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media miasma.
As I’ve said many times! Thank you.
Greetings from Thomasville, GA! Prep for me was completed yesterday. As of now, light rain, almost no wind, & the birds are still singing. Just saw a LONG convoy of power trucks & the accompanying linemen drive by, flying flags from other states; it feels like the proverbial calvary is arriving.
For reference, I’m about 30 miles from downtown Tallahassee, as the crow (or hurricane) flies. Expecting all heck to break loose around midnight.
Originally from where you are, all of the family is still on the coast of the state. Appreciate & enjoy all of your posts.
See you on the other side of Miss Helene.
Still no comparison to Matthew? Sorry, I just listened to Pat Prokop so mild anxiety here
No.
Any updates on what wind will be like overnight tonight in Savannah??
No changes … probably around 30 to 35mph sustained, some higher gusts in thunderstorms that track through so some gusts to 50-55mph or so wouldn’t be a surprise, but remember we get random 50 or 60mph gusts in our summer storms all the time. Scary, especially in the dark, will make a mess and cause power outages, but shouldn’t be horrific.