At the 8am update, NHC upped the odds for some kind of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf to 80%.
Here’s the relavent text:
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.
As I noted in the update this morning, although the system is showing some signs of organization, this accelerated schedule is as much to do with the proximity to shore as anything. If it were further out, they would likely adopt a wait and see approach. But NHC doesn’t want you to get caught off guard, and is following the “forecast of least regret” here.
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