As expected NHC started advisories on Tropical Depression Two. Here’s the latest guidance – the TL;DR hasn’t changed from this morning’s discussions on the blog .
Here’s the official track and TAOS(tm) damage swath. Basically a tropical storm brushing the coast, NHC notes this is a bad case scenario.
Intensity forecast. The black line is NHC, notice most of the guidance is below the official “forecast of least regret.”
Model tracking actually not bad for such a weak system.
This is the mid level water vapor image, white is whet, brown is dry. It shows why TD Two shouldn’t get a lot stronger that a tropical storm: the brown, dry air spiraling in from Georgia.
Saw a post on Facebook from a group who are storm chasers. They said it will go on land as a level 3 hurricane at the Big Bend area.
I laughed a bit and realized I needed to block them going forward.