As always your best source of information is the National Hurricane Center’s Key messages regarding Tropical Depression Two (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Be very cautious of social media, lots of fake graphics going around, and always check the date and time of any information. NHC does updated forecasts on active storms at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm, with intermediate updates in between (typically at 8am, 2pm, 8pm, and 2am, but sometimes hourly for major storms near landfall).
NHC started tracking the system in the Gulf as Tropical Depression Two yesterday. As of 5am this morning (Monday) it remains sprawling and disorganized … here’s the latest IR loop … the jump at the end is the satellite controller moving the image frame west. Click any image to embiggen …
If you look carefully you can see a low level circulation, but that’s about it. The heaviest convection (thunderstorms) are 100’s of miles to the west of the center. Conditions aren’t too favorable for intensification, especially due to the proximity to land, and the dry air sneaking in from the north. The RAMMB rapid intensification guidance is pessimistic for the next 24 hours, with four of the six parameters either unfavorable or, in the case of divergence, very unfavorable.
Still, a few models do show intensification, and NHC is being cautious, warning that TD2 could become a tropical storm today. I won’t be at all surprised if they upgrade it: the last thing NHC wants is for people to be surprised. That’s the right thing to do from a watch and warning perspective, even if it has unfortunate economic consequences (especially with our screwed up insurance system that ties insurance deductibles to the warning system). Speaking of which, there are watches up along the Florida Panhandle, and warnings offshore:
Here’s the forecast impact swath using my TAOS(tm) TC impact model. Economic impacts are probably going to be light, in the 10’s of millions, mostly depending on how enthusiastic emergency managers get about evacuations. Evacuation costs and shut downs often cause more economic disruption than the storm itself for weaker events, especially tropical storms.
Have seen a few dire warnings about the fact that this is headed towards “refinery row,” the area in western Louisiana and eastern Texas where the vast majority of US oil refineries are located. This storm should cause minimal impacts on the oil and gas industry as long as nothing breaks that shouldn’t. Given the disruptions in the Middle East, any disruptions will be unwelcome. Most likely Two (or, Bertha if NHC names it, which seems likely) will not be much of a storm by the time it gets there.
Most likely this thing will be disruptive for the Gulf coast, not dangerous, although with any storm there can be hazards like flash floods or trees/limbs coming down. If in the warned areas, take appropriate precautions. Those in the GA/SC Lowcountry hoping for rain, sorry, this is too far away. Next rain chances look to be late this week, so another few miserable high heat index days are in store.
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