Overnight Tropical Storm Helene continued to organize, and should become a hurricane this afternoon. Hurricane warnings are up for the Cancun area of Mexico, and the Big Bend area of Florida where landfall is expected tomorrow night. The latest from NHC may be found at their Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Helene (en Español: Mensajes Claves).
The forecast really hasn’t changed a lot. Here is the damage swath as calculated by my TAOS(tm) TC model using the NHC forecast. On this track the “best estimate” for economic impacts is $14 Billion USD, if the wind field really ends up as large as NHC is forecasting $18 to $20 Billion isn’t out of the question …
A large Category Three storm making landfall would ordinarily cause two to three times that amount of impact, but while unfortunate for those in the way, fortunately for the big picture the worse of the storm will hit a sparsely populated section of the coast. Still, on this track, the Tallahassee area will see extensive impacts. Storm surges could reach 6 meters (20ft) in places near Fish Creek, west of Steinhatchee. Given the size of the storm, a huge section of the coast will likely see high surges …
The Tampa/St. Pete area looks to be sideswiped, but impacts will depend on wobbles in the storm. As seen on the main swath map, Helene is forecast to swing out over the Gulf, so despite the large size of the storm the worst should stay barely offshore. Still, significant power outages are possible all across north Florida, and scattered outages even on the east coast from the Orlando area up to Jacksonville. Here’s the forecast power outage outlook …
After landfall impacts across south Georgia will be extensive. The GA/FL border is less than 50 miles from the coast at that point. That’s barely bigger than the forecast eye diameter for Helene at landfall! As the power outage map shows, most of central Georgia will see significant outages, and the area around Albany to Tifton to Valdosta and south to the border will likely see network damage, resulting in long term outages. There will be significant (multi-day) outages probably well into the Atlanta area. Thursday/Friday night the lights will truly go out in Georgia (sorry, had to say that – gallows humor is the only way to get through this sometimes).
As you might guess, any storm that can cause widespread outages, trees down, etc. is going to hurt agriculture. It is harvest season for many crops, and this is going to make a mess, and tree crops like pecans are going to take a big hit.
Fast moving, landfalling hurricanes often spawn weak tornadoes. Expect lots of warnings and some damage from those as well. But keep in mind these are not likely to be Wizard of Oz, Kansas style long track tornadoes, but weaker short lived F0-F1 storms, so most well built homes will be ok with some roof damage, etc. unless unlucky and a tree causes more damage. Those in mobile homes along the damage swath, especially in that Albany-Tifton-Valdosta and south to the coast swath, need to have nearby shelter (and consider spending the night in a sturdy structure).
For the Georgia coast, there will be a significant gradient in impacts if this track holds up. The far southern coast, around Brunswick, will see higher winds and storm surges right on the coast, with scattered to widespread power outages possible. It should not be catastrophic or dangerous with some common sense, but hazardous to be out in it. Conditions will begin to deteriorate late this afternoon, with the worst impacts of middle tropical storm strength overnight Thursday. Rain should slack off after 2am, but winds will still be high through sunrise.
For Savannah, some effects of Helene may begin this evening, but most impacts will start in the morning, and conditions deteriorate during the day, especially late in the day (after 5pm). Overnight will be noisy with gusty winds and rain showers, peaking around 2am. The rain should end by sunrise Friday, with a blustery day as the storm passes. Expect some tornado warnings overnight. The high tide Friday morning will likely see some shallow coastal flooding, but the moon is just past last quarter, so tides are not at their highest, and the extra two feet might put the total around 9.5 to 10 feet at the Ft. Pulaski gauge, which is the “minor” flood stage. It might flirt with getting on to US 80, but not more that than. This certainly doesn’t look to be a Matthew type storm.
The heart of the Frogmore Metroplex (Beaufort, HHI), which are now also under a tropical storm watch and should expect a tropical storm warning later today, will likely see a bit less in the way of impacts. Blustery winds, periods of heavy rain, maybe flirt with tropical storm conditions right on the beaches.
If you are in Florida or SW Georgia, absolutely follow the guidance of your local emergency managers. Those on the coast need to evacuate – this is a big storm, and therefore will create a high storm surge. It’s not likely that there will be coastal evacuations in Georgia or SC, but if you are right on the coast and get flooding at spring tides that’s about what you should see Friday morning. Closures are likely across the region – but hard to predict those.
Airline traffic will be snarled across the country, as Atlanta/Hartsfield-Jackson is such a huge hub, and will be on limited operations for at least 12 to 18 hours if not shut down for a time as the storm passes. That will have ripple effects the whole weekend, so keep in touch with your airline if traveling and expect chaos and misery.
That’s what it looks like right now. Again, monitoring hurricanes is a process of watching for trends. There is no need to wear out your refresh key. Next post this afternoon most likely. I’m sorry I can’t answer everyone’s individual questions, during events like this it gets overwhelming, and I have “real” work to do. I’m no longer doing any active funded natural hazards work, so this is very much part time and volunteer.
Thanks so much for all who have contributed! If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media sewer.
As someone who volunteers myself (at hospice), I want to offer a ‘thank you.’ Your experience, wit and keen insights provide a reliable resource and I truly appreciate the time and commitment required to help everyone understand these storms.
P.S., Thanks and thanks again for the shots taken at those dullards at the Weather Channel.
Thank you
So comforting to have the local scoop, so thorough!
Thank you…so much real knowledge and common sense!
Have been using your site for years to help my students decide to evacuate or not, just wanted to say thank you for all you do – long time listener, first time caller.
Thanks so much for sharing your insights and expertise! You are our family’s favorite source for determining just how doomed we really are. 🙂
Thank you for keeping us informed. You are always our first source for hurricane information. We so appreciate what you do and know that we are getting the best info from you.