Helene has been upgraded to a hurricane as of the 11am Advisory. Essentially all of Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina are under tropical storm warnings as expected., and the big bend of Florida and southwest Georgia hurricane warnings.
Helene is starting to look more like a hurricane. It’s a huge system if you include the extended cloud shield …
Although the track hasn’t changed much, NHC is increasingly nervous about rapid intensification and has bumped up the landfall intensity to 110 knots (125 mph, or a strong Category 3 storm). Some of the models show a much stronger storm at landfall – a few even a Cat 5 – but some are also not as strong as NHC is forecasting for a variety of reasons. That said, preparing for at least strong category 3 storm in the warned areas makes good sense … if you are on the Gulf coast of Florida and advised to evacuate, don’t gamble your life on a forecast, get out!
This has once again caused the damage estimates to creep up, now around $18.5 Billion. There are two reasons for this. Simply having a stronger storm at landfall isn’t changing the numbers so much because (and no disrespect is intended to those who live in the area) it is sparsely populated and at a certain point the storm can’t do much more damage there. But … NHC has again expanded the forecast wind field (more impacts across central Florida), as well as how strong the storm will be inland, showing Helene as a medium strength tropical storm as it marches through Atlanta and may cause roof damage and trees down all the way to Chattanooga! As noted in the morning post, this puts large swaths of Georgia at risk (surprisingly, Atlanta is technically part of Georgia even though it acts like it’s the other way around). The current track and intensity also includes parts of Alabama in the potential damage swath …
All that said, the description from this morning is still valid, especially for the coastal GA/SC area. Will try to do a post on rapid intensification later today.
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Where does name Frogmore come from to describe HH and Beaufort area?? Just curious!
Frogmore is an old plantation at/near in a historically Gullah/Geechee enclave on St. Helena Island. In 1862, a school (Penn Center) was established there by two women from the north — one of the earliest schools set up for formerly enslaved people. Penn Center and the entire area has a really interesting story dating back before the Europeans’ arrival in the 16th century. Its colonial, antebellum, Civil War, Reconstruction and civil rights history is significant. Penn Center established itself as a safe place for civil rights leaders to meet in the 50’s and 60’s, a place where white and African-American people meeting for strategy sessions could safely gather. It’s really worth a visit. Frogmore (and all of St. Helena Island) is a fascinating place.