As the seasons change, where the blobs-o-doom form changes, and the eyes of the clickerati shift towards the Gulf of (Mexico, America, whatever). The Gulf is an interesting feature with a lot of meteorological impacts. It is one reason why the US Midwest so many tornadoes in the spring, as the warm, moist, fetid air from the Gulf collides with drier, cooler air from the north. It provides fertile ground for developing nor’easters in winter, and also spawns late season “back door” tropical systems for the Frogmore Metroplex (although for the Gulf coast, it’s obviously a direct hit, but that’s not my problem 😛 ) …
NHC has tagged an area near Yucatan with a 30% chance of spinning up this week:
It is just a projected disturbance at this point, so does not have dedicated model tracking yet. This morning’s GFS run was enthusiastic about it, showing a fairly organized system hitting the northern Gulf coast next weekend:
Here’s the animation of the wind and surface pressure …
Rain is likely to be a big factor. The front over the southeast is dropping a lot of rain, and the tropical moisture from this disturbance will ride up the frontal boundary and dump more even if it doesn’t develop …
Nothing to get excited about yet, but will be watching it this week.
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Thank you for your info!