Gulf Blobwatch Continues

Based on the enthusiasm of the global models, NHC has upgraded the chances that a tropical system of some kind could form in the Gulf of Whatever later this week to 50%. Here’s the view from GOES West, also showing Hurricane Rachel (now moving away from Mexico) and a system expected to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico in the next few days:

Looking at GFS, we see a low end hurricane making landfall in Mississippi on Sunday morning …

You will be seeing lots of noise over this. Bottom line is at this point we don’t have an INVEST area because there’s nothing there yet – only potential – so no dedicated model guidance. There are no “magic works” in the outlook, so as the muchly missed Nicholas would say, at this point it’s still only “elevated levels of meh.”

That said, there is potential for something tropical to impact the Gulf Coast and southeast later this week. All the moisture ahead of and associated with the potential system are looking to dump a lot of rain in the southeast …

Areas of the MS/AL/FL coast, as well as the Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal GA/SC Lowcountry) could see over 6″ of rain between now and next Monday, so there is potential for flash floods, urban street flooding and otherwise soggy conditions in the usual places.

In Downtown Savannah, we’ve had 1.56″ of rain since Friday, more looks to be on the way today. Here’s the accumulation over the next three days across the region …

Please let me know if you like the animations, or prefer the fixed maps (or some combo).

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