There are nine tropical systems on the map this morning. Fortunately most are not big threats, but one, Polo, is likely to cause some damage. Let’s look at it first.
Hurricane Polo is hours away from landfall on Baja Califorina: Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Rachel (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Conditions are already starting to deteriorate, and hurricane warnings ar up on both sides of the penensula as well as the mainland:
In the area of landfall high winds, waves, and storm surge (on BOTH sides of the peninsula!) are in store, with heavy rains and flash flooding extending well away from the track:
Flash flood watches are up on the US side of the border, ald flash flooding will be possible across a big swath of New Mexico and West Texas for early next week:
Further south is tropical storm, soon to be hurricane, Rachel. There is an area of tropical storm watch for the pacific coast of Mexico. Rachel should stay far enough offshore that the only risks are waves and risk currents, but a wobble eastward could change that picture. Late next week Baja might be impacted, the models get fuzzy out that far.
Rounding out the East Pacific, Nolo has past the Hawaiian Islands. Since it hit the same areas as Lala a few weeks ago, many of the emergency responsers (not to mention residents!) are tired and the damage is a bit worse than it should have been due to the double hit. Odalys is a fading fish storm, and tne invest area EP91 should also stay away from the coast and islands.
Atlantic is boring, with Fay now a depression, Invest AL91 will be headed northeast to the graveyard of hurricanes …
In the West Pacific, Typhoon Surigae continues to brush Japan. The worst impact should stay offshore as it rapidly accelerates northeast …
The nor’easter dumping rain and wind on the US Northeast continues today, here is the visual satellite at sunrise with a nice swirl of clouds:
The main risk continues to be flash flooding from rain bands well to the north of the center, which is located just south of the New York City area. Here’s the radar map as of around 8am ET …
The internet is rapidly becoming a dystopia, far from the vision of an open, free exchange of information that it began with. In administrative news, Meta/Facebook has made it official that they are only allowing TWO outside links per month for organizations that don’t pay them for the privilege. It would cost about $500/month to continue to post blog links there. Given the average monthly income from donations is only around $1200 a month during a quiet year like 2026 (it was $1700/month last year), and it costs about $1500 a month to run, adding a $500/month expense is is a non-starter. The choice is to either expend fund-raising (which as you know I hate for ethical and personal reasons), or abandon Facebook (the more attractive option since I hate what it does to some people). Unfortunately the majority of viewers come here through that channel, and I haven’t been able to convince them to move to email. An app is an option I suppose. Haven’t had time/inclination to explore the options and decide yet.
Abandon FB!
I receive your updates by email. I never have and never will become a member of Facebook. Pure Greed and Power!
Love your emails. We are in Beaufort/ greater Frogmore
Greed not info rules. I’d vote for dropping facebook. Your followers are loyal and will move–is my guess
Dumping FB is a great idea!
I also receive your updates by email. I only visit Facebook if I am looking for something specific in Marketplace. Abandon Facebook…
Abandon Facebook. Those who value your info will find you and support you. As I do.
I appreciate your no-hype commentary which is why I’m following you and make referrals to your blog. I heard that they are referring to Polo as a category 6. Was that just made up by media or is it official? The answer can be made directly to me or in your emailed blog.
Thanks,
Tanya
Bogus media hype. The categories top out at Category 5, there is not Cat 6. There was some talk/push by activists to add a category, but depending on how you set the definitions, it just gets really messy. You’d have to re-evaluate historical storms, and there is no easy way to do that prior to the 1980’s except in limited cases, so you’d never know for sure what the historical odds were. (for example, wind gauges are pretty much destroyed by Cat 4’s anyway). The Saffir-Simpson categories are a bit misaligned, a “better” approach would be a total revamp, but people know what they are, and you should know that if you’re in the way of anything cat3 or higher you need to get gone.
I appreciate the emails- Facebook posts can be weirdly out of sync. Even though we haven’t had hurricane warnings this season your reasoned approach is highly valuable.
Always have been a subscriber of your emails. I began following you leading up to Harvey while I was living in Houston…
I have never been on Facebook. As Elsa once said, “Let it go!” I have always received updates via e-mail and I forward them to family. Thanks so much for continuing to do this for us.
Will any of the activity out West help the catastrophic water level at Lake Mead?
I understand your conundrum which is why I went to email a while back to continue to receive your information.I look forward to them and I know I’m receiving the best information there is regarding weather and meteorological news!