Lowell continuted it’s eastward track shift and is passing just offshore of the western main islands of Hawaii this morning. It is highly sheared now, and doesn’t look symmetrical on the satellite image …
Passing this close, both Niihau and Kauai are experiencing hurricane conditions – high winds, especially along exposed ridge lines and higher elevations, high waves. Oahu is getting tropical storm conditions in some areas. These islands are also getting heavy rain exacerbated on the windward slopes by something called orographic enhancement – the wind forces warm, wet air upwards, in some cases doubling or more the rain rate.
The latest from CPHC is at this link: Key messages regarding Hurricane Lowell (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s the primary damage swath based on the 5am ET CPHC forecast, using my TAOS(tm)/TC Lachesis damage model:
As you can see, these track shifts over the last 24 hours have put the western islands well within the damage swath, with forecast economic impacts going up from a few million to over half a billion or more in the last 24 hours.
Got a reply from our daughter in law a few hours ago. As a reminder, my son and his family live on the North Shore of Kauai in Kalihiwai Valley, which lies between Princeville and Kilauea and is a five minute walk to the beach in Kalihiwai Bay.
“We are ok! We have a roof and water! It was scary but no one got hurt or lost property in our neighborhood. No power and won’t have road access for a few days, but we are set.”
I was able to pick up some news from Kauai Now, KHON2 and KKCR (Kauai Community Radio – a really good public radio station that loves playing the Grateful Dead. 33,000 out of roughly 36,000 on Kauai without power.
Hey Ron – Glad to hear your loved ones are good! Hope they have stock to hold out for a few days. Little scary I’m sure getting hit by a storm surge from the wrong side. And thanks for the Grateful Dead link.
OT for Chuck – Any comment re the announcement from OpenAI about solving Navier-Stokes (the “easier” version) and how it might affect storm modeling over the next few years?
WordPress knows who I am… which may explain why it gave me handle “NachosWaga” – made me smile. Perhaps too descriptive. –rkc