Lowell made its turn to the north yesterday. Unfortunately, it turned a bit more northeast than expected, and the latest tracks put the hurricane force winds dangerously close to Niihau and Kauai. Here’s the new forecast damage swath, based on the 5am (11pm HST) forecasts …
and here are CPHC’s key messages: Key messages regarding Hurricane Lowell (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Based on the shift, hurricane warnings have been extended to both Niihau and Kauai:
The tracking is fairly tight until the storm passes the main islands, but then we get two completely opposite scenarios:
The next few hours will be critical, and the storm track settles after the turn. Remember that wind damage is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, so an 80 mph wind produces twice as much damage as a 70mph wind. So especially for an island, a 20 mile wobble can easily double or triple that amount of damage.
Will do an update this afternoon ET (morning Hawaii time).
As I said the other day, one of our sons and his family live on the North Shore of Kauai. Wind damage is definitely a concern, but a sometimes bigger concern is flooding from the rain fed run off of the mountain streams that flow into the rivers. In April 2018, the North Shore recorded 54 inches of rain in 24 hours. I have a photo my son sent me showing the entirety of Kalihiwai Valley being flooded. It rose to the bottom of their driveway. Fortunately, they are at a higher elevation with excellent drainage.