The Blob is Red!!?11?? Hawai’i, Japan update

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NHC has now increased the odds of something forming in the Atlantic later this week out of distirbance #1 to 70%. Here’s the NHC outlook over an IR image … the official text is Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*).

Satellite image showing the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic Ocean on August 11, 2026, with areas of potential tropical development labeled and color-coded according to their formation probabilities.

There are still no magic words, and it’s not an INVEST so there is no tracking (despite the frantic efforts of weather doomers and clickbaiters to use the TC genesis tracks that way), so nothing to do or worry about at this point. Tracking model runs and an INVEST number are possible later today. The other two blobs are at 10% and unlikely to do anything.

In the Central Pacific, Invest CP93 is starting to form up and will become a storm soon. NHC has started issuing Key Messages for System in the Central Pacific (CP93) and is advising people in Hawai’i to “monitor the progress” of the system. Here’s what my TAOS(tm) model (based on the GFS track) and global model tracks are showing …

Map showing basic storm impacts for INVEST (CP932026) in the North Pacific Ocean, highlighting areas of potential damage with varying intensity colors, along with storm path and estimated economic impact.
Satellite image showing track models for tropical system INVEST CP93, with various colored paths indicating predicted trajectories. Honolulu is marked, with associated model data on the right.
Click any image to embiggen. NOT OFFICIAL FORECASTS!


Satellite image showing the geographical region of East Asia, including parts of Japan, Korea, and surrounding oceans. The image depicts cloud formations and a tropical system named 'CHAN-HOM' south of Japan.
A map showing the projected storm impacts of Typhoon CHAN-HOM on Japan, including affected areas, economic impact estimates, and wind swath projections.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is making landfall north of Tokyo this evening Japan time (morning US East Coast). Mostly rain/gusty winds and disruption, flights out of the Tokyo area have been canceled.

There was a deep (100km) 7.4 earthquake in Columbia yesterday that has caused a significant amount of damage an loss of life. The damage footprint in the automatic output below is correct, the economic impact estimate printout is wrong, should be $1 to $2 Billion USD. The death toll is over 130 as of this morning but is expected to grow. A surprising number of buildings have collapsed, leading to the high death toll.

Map depicting seismic event data for an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4, showing affected regions in Colombia and surrounding areas, along with ground motion levels.

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