Atlantic Blobs (15 July)

There are now two blobs on the Atlantic TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook):

Satellite image depicting the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for July 15, 2026, showing two areas of interest in the Atlantic with 20% and 10% chances of development.

Let’s check in with the Dachshund index:

A resting Dachshund lying on a stone pathway surrounded by green plants, with a humorous text overlay about its lack of excitement.

That settles it: If an 18 month old Daschshund isn’t excited, it’s pretty boring. So nothing to worry about.


More detail? Sigh, ok There is a disturbance in the Gulf that will be lurking off the Big Bend area of Florida potentially pumping some moisture up into the southeast. The primary European model IFS run shows most of it staying offshore …

Map showing total precipitation forecast for the southeastern United States over five days, with varying colors indicating different precipitation levels.

But GFS is much drier …

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After the disturbance moves into the Atlantic, there is some potential for development. Here is what the ECMWF genesis product looks like through Saturday both for the Gulf and the thing in the far Eastern Atlantic …

Map showing tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean, including genesis details, with areas of varying tropical storm strike probability indicated by color gradients.

So still a pile of “meh” because the close blob will be offshore, and the other is way out in fish territory. Conditions really aren’t that favorable in the Atlantic right now.

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