Bavi landfall in hours on China; one more day of miserable heat in Savannah

As the sun sets today in China, Typhoon Bavi is approaching the coast with landfall expected in the Wenszhou-Taizhou region in a few hours. Here’s the view with major city labels, left is English, right is (hopefully) Chinese …

Fortunately the storm has weakend considerably since it peaked near Guam. Here’s the forecast damage swath using my TAOS(tm)/TC model, based on the JTWC forecast:

On this track/intensity, impacts look to be around $20 Billion, half of yesterday’s forecast. This again shows the perils of hurricane/typhoon forecasting: not only do the wobble matter on densely populated shorelines, at these wind speeds a 5% error in the wind speed (+/- 5 knots, which any forecast would be thrilled to get a 48 hours before landfall) translates to a 50% difference in damage to a typical single family home (from 32% at the high end to 21% at the low end!).

By sunrise tomorrow we should start to have reports on impacts. Over 5 million people live in the potential damage zone, and over a million people have been evacuated as storm surges could reach 5 meters (16.5 ft) in places.

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Closer to home, another Heat Advisory day in store, so be careful and get any outside work done before, well, as I write this at 7am it’s already getting late!

It didn’t cool off much last night. It was still 86 at midnight, and only barely went below 80 with a low just before sunrise at 79F. But we may get a cooling thunderstorm this afternoon, and the next few days look to have cloud cover with afternoon thunderstorms likely, knocking overall temps down about 8 degrees. May not sound like much but we’ll take it.

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