Typhoon Bavi continues to trek towards landfall tomorrow in central China. Here’s the visual view as sunset approaches, 6:00 PM China Standard Time view (6am US East Coast):
Bavi has weakened considerable from when it passed over the Northern Mariana Islands, causing catastrophic damage to the island of Rota. The Coast Guard has reopened the main port at Guam, and damage assessment is underway. This is a vital step since almost all the traffic to the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (yes, this is US territory!) passes through Guam first.
Landfall is expected tomorrow in China. As you can see from the above visual image, Bavi has lost the distinct eye but it is still a large and dangerous storm. While the forecast might not be as strong as it was yesterday, it is still expected to cause a lot of damage. Here’s the new forecast damage swath using my TAOS(tm) TC/Lachesis model:
Tracking is tight, but again what matters is the damage swath. A slight wobble south could cause more damage on Taiwan, given Taipei is at the northern end of that Island, while a more northward shift starts to involve Shanghai – so bad damage is expected either way.
Damage estimates have actually increased despite the weaker forecast, because the fringes are now expected to reach damaging levels through the incredibly dense infrastructure and population along the Ningbo-Hangzhou corridor, as well as the Wenszhou-Taizhou area. Some estimates now top $60 Billion in impacts. As always, given the dependence of the world on Chinese exports, any supply chain disruptions will cause more woe for the global economy already stressed by the conflict in the Middle East.
Closer to home, the heat misery continues to to slightly above normal temperatures and significantly higher than normal humidity. At least in Savannah a thunderstorm dramatically cooled things off yesterday afternoon. Here’s the three day temperature comparison, the dark red line is air temperatures yesterday. Notice the 20 degree drop around 8pm (hour 20) …
That gave the air conditioners at least a little break overnight even though in midtown we only got 0.11″ of rain and the soil is starting to dry out again. Note that NWS has heat advisories up for Frogmore and the southern suburbs (aka Hilton Head, Savannah) today (Friday) again, and warnings around the northern suburbs of Charleston. While the forecast isn’t to warning levels, almost any where in the built up areas, or without a breeze will be at risk of heat stress higher than the advisory indicates so be careful out there …
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