In this morning’s outlook NHC has plopped a blob off the U.S. East Coast …
So should you panic? Will the stores run out of beef jerky and toilet paper? (probably 😛 ) Here’s what we know.
First, there are no “magic words” in the outlook, so no need for anybody to do anything. NHC is flagging an area that might develop next week off the end of a front that will be passing through the SEUS. The models (GFS, ECM) are showing potential for tropical development. Here is the probability plot from the latest ECM runs …
However, it doesn’t show this developing into a tropical storm or hurricane. GFS isn’t showing much if any run to run consistency right now. The 06Z run doesn’t show any substantial organized wind field over the next week …
TL;DR: there are some indications that a depression might form next week. It is way to early to say it will, or how strong it might get. So nothing to do until until Monday at the earliest.
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Thank you and good reminder ab. Chronology.