Blob watching

NHC still has an area off the Southeastern US coast tagged with a 10% chance of development. It isn’t even organized enough to be an invest area (thus no dedicated model tracking).

Satellite image showing the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the Eastern Atlantic on June 30, 2026, with a highlighted area indicating a 10% chance of development.

The formerly enthusiastic ECMWF analysis is now distinctly “meh” at < 20%, further offshore than NHC’s graphic:

Map showing tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean with regions of varying tropical storm strike probability indicated by color gradients, from pink (high probability) to yellow (low probability).

All the activity, such as it is, is in the Pacific with one invest off the coast of Mexico and headed into open waters, and a weak disturbance over the Philippines.

World map showing global tropical cyclone summary with designated areas marked as INVESTEP95, INVESTWP96, and INVESTWP95, along with indications for active storms, hurricane, tropical storm, and tropical low.

The only threat at the moment is a system developing in the mid Pacific that might be a problem for Guam in a few days:

Map showing basic storm impacts for INVEST WP952026, displaying storm track, peak wind swath, and estimated damage levels in the North Pacific Ocean and Philippine Sea.
GFS based forecast for WP95

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