The social media channels have been rife with speculation about a possible snow event for the GA/SC coast this weekend. Let’s get one thing super clear: forecasting snow on the coast is almost always an under 48 hour window. Except for very rare situations (and this isn’t one of them), beyond 48 hours is a waste of time. But apparently a lot of people have time to waste.
At the moment some of the models are showing some snow potential, but the signals are mixed (literally). Run to run consistency isn’t great, here is the slidee thingee showing the 06z and 12z GFS runs … note this is the 12km model so the coast is blocky …
The 06z run shows the snow coming early and reaching the coast – the 12z shows precip coming later and staying well inland with only a freezing rain/ice mix over the coast (which could be unpleasant). Here’s the animation from the 12z run:
Bottom line here is that it will be Friday before we have much of a handle on this. The reason it is so hard to forecast snow here is that the timing of precipitation is critical. A few hours difference between the arrival time means the difference between an early morning or overnight arrival with freezing temperatures, and a later in the day arrival with temps at or above freezing. Getting exactly the right combo of temperature and moisture profile through the lower atmo so it’s snow rather than either ice or rain is tricky.
So … no need to panic or get excited yet. Check back Friday.
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