Melissa to buzz Hispaniola

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At 11am NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa (AL132025).

Satellite image showing Tropical Storm Melissa with infrared brightness temperatures, indicating the storm's structure, intensity, and surrounding weather patterns.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Melissa showing cloud formation and weather patterns over the Caribbean Sea.

Here are links to the Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Melissa (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and this is the forecast track and active watches (Hurricane for Haiti, Tropical Storm for Jamaica):

Satellite image showing the track and warnings for Tropical Storm Melissa, with highlighted areas indicating hurricane and tropical storm watches in the Caribbean, including Haiti and Jamaica.
click any image to embiggen.

As NHC notes, Cuba, Hispaniola (Haiti/DR), and Jamaica are all in the potential swath over the next five days. Here’s the impact swath estimate based on the official forecast:

Map showing the projected impact swath and peak wind estimates for Tropical Storm Melissa (AL132025) in the Caribbean Sea, indicating areas of potential damage.

There is a lot of uncertainty in both the track and intensity at the moment. There should be an aircraft recon flight later today to get a better handle on the structure, which will help the models do a better forecast than the current grouping …

Map showing forecast track models for Tropical Storm Melissa, indicating various projected paths and intensity levels across the Caribbean and Southeastern United States.

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