The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook now has “magic words,” so time to pay attention to the blob in the Caribbean …
The system has the temporary ID AL98 (some notes here on what that means), and while it still doesn’t have a center of circulation required to be a tropical cyclone and get a permanent name/id, it has winds near tropical storm force already in places. As a reminder, the “magic words” in an outlook are “Interests <someplace> should <do something>.” In this case:
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.
So if you are in Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba (and I would add the USVI), you should be paying attention. NHC put out a “Key Messages” graphic yesterday afternoon, but hasn’t updated it as of 5:30am Tuesday morning.
The bigger model picture has most of the simulations stalling south of Hispaniola then taking off to the northeast, although a few models (like the Canadian Meteorological Centre model) continuing west …
The current GFS model run shows the storm smacking Hispaniola dead on as a strong tropical storm:
Hopefully we will have some clarity later today or by tomorrow morning. Will probably do an update this afternoon, especially if NHC starts advisories (which is likely).
Elsewhere on Planet Earth, Tropical Storm Fengshen is south of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, headed towards Vietnam. While the intensity is decreasing, it could still cause hazards from heavy rain and flash flooding.
The Indian Ocean is entering it’s hurricane (cyclone) season, with Chenge still looking to just brush the north coast of Madegascar, and an invest area off to the east that should spin up and track behind it …
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