TL;DR: Some potential for a Caribbean storm, watching active storms in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
Starting with the live storms (and so you can find the clues I’ve left behind), Tropical Storm Fengshen is due to brush Hainan Island on its way to Vietnam. Here’s the view from a lonely satellite, Geo-Kompsat 2A (lonely because of the Himawari 9 malfunction).
Here’s the forecast impact swath from my TAOS(tm)/Lachesis impact model, based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track:
Continuing east, the fire dance tonight has begun in the Southern Indian Ocean, with Cyclone Chenge headed towards Madagascar. It looks to weaken, but may still produce heavy rains in the northern areas, which like many mountainous regions is prone to flash flooding in the many river valleys. Hopefully the disruptions due to the coup and political turmoil will not make any manageable situations worse.
Finally, as if I’d forget tonight (it’s still dark as I write this), the Blob in the Atlantic is now Invest AL98. It’s still not very organized, but the system is producing winds near tropical storm force in places along with heavy rain. NHC expects the thing to enter an environment more favorable by mid-week, this the 70% chance of spin up. The models are mixed, here’s what the track maps look like:
We’ll have to wait for it to decide, but I’m sure NHC will send us their warning signal (as if we could ever hide). If you’re wondering if I could rephrase it, this might be a threat to Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic next weekend, could continue west as a weaker system, or fail to spin up all together. I couldn’t really put it much plainer, so I guess I light my torch and wave it for the New moon on Monday …
Yes, listening to classical music again since it is in fact a New Moon on Monday today …
Update: here’s the “movie” version of the video (17 minutes) …
If you like this stuff, by far the best way is to subscribe to the emails, which is the only really reliable way to get them. The commentary, maps, and snark should be expanding to winter storms and other topics later this year. You can also donate to keep it going at this the same link, donations are responsible for the new automated maps subscribers are seeing previews of.
You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media morass.