As the sun rises over Vinland (aka Newfoundland), Erin is just offshore and rapidly heading northeast, no longer entirely tropical in nature …
At this point the only remaining risk is from the waves generated by this powerful storm. That means heavy surf and rip currents will likely persist across the Atlantic, so be careful if heading to the beach this weekend.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, NHC is watching three disturbances. Of these, #1 is tagged with an 80% chance of becoming organized enough to start advisories. It is curving north, farther offshore than Erin, so more of a problem for Bermuda in 3-4 days and much less of a problem for the US. Disturbance 3 can be ignored. Disturbance #2 has some potential to spin up as it enters the Eastern Caribbean next week, but lots can happen before then. There are no “magic words” so no need to do anything yet.
TD18 briefly became Tropical storm LingLing over southern Japan, now back below tropical storm intensity. Since Kagoshima Prefecture is already saturated from record rainfall this month, the weak slow moving storm is causing additional flooding, with landslides a risk as well. An invest area over the northern Philippines is dropping a lot of rain and has some potential to develop over the South China Sea.
Speaking of flooding, Coastal Georgia/South Carolina (better known as the Frogmore Metroplex) is facing a flash flood risk this weekend. The ground is saturated, just in the last 24 hours parts of the Chatham County got 3″ or so. There is a strong potential for heavy rain from thunderstorms now through the rest of the weekend. From the WSFO Charleston:
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact
the region Friday through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches can be expected through early Sunday morning with
localized amounts exceeding 6 inches. Ground conditions
remain wet and any sustained period of heavy rainfall will
likely lead to areas of flash flooding.
Be prepared for the usual streets and other flood-prone spots to flood. It’s very hard to predict when and where these storms will dump, but as one example here is an HRRR model rain total for Friday Night/Saturday Morning, showing 4-6″ of rain in places just south of Savannah …
Given the nature of convective systems, those blobs of 6″ of rain could end up anywhere, so be careful and don’t drive through standing water unless you are really sure how deep it is – and that whatever you’re driving can get through it!.
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