Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forms in the Caribbean …

At 4pm NHC started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 …

Here’s the links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (en Español: Mensajes Claves).

Remember that a PTC is when something is forming near land and NHC wants to start advisories, since waiting for it to actually spin up might be to late to give people time to prepare. In this case, Honduras and Nicaragua have both raised watches to kick the preparation process in to gear. The biggest problem will likely be rain, although if it spins up a bit more localized storm surge could be a problem in some of the bays in Northern Belize.

The track is pretty uncertain at the moment, although the general path should be to wander for a few days then trek across Yucatan, into the Gulf, then towards Cuba. GFS no longer towards Florida but does a weird loop thing to the south (blue line):

Those of you in Florida can officially start worrying if you want to, as the magic words have appeared in the advisory … It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. That doesn’t mean hit refresh every five minutes, for now checking in the morning and evening are fine. And read the first part carefully – in this case it may well go someplace else, or it may just be a blob of rain by the time it gets there, there will be plenty of warning, so be prepared but not scared.

Frogmore and less scenic nearby communities in GA/SC are not at risk at the moment (or likely ever).

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