TL;DR: something almost certainly brewing in the Western Caribbean. Will it hit Florida? Too early to tell. West Pacific remains active.
The usual suspects are hyping AL99, a developing system currently near Jamaica:
The current TWO says “Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system” and also warns of heavy rains across Jamaica. An aircraft is being sent out to investigate, I expect NHC will start tracking the system later today, tomorrow at the latest. The track models have a bit of a squashed spider look:
The main GFS and ECM global runs have the storm stall out and drift near the coast of Central America and Yucatan for 4-5 days before tracking the system rapidly across the southern Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida. Here is what they look like next Wednesday afternoon using the image comparison tool (aka cool slidee thingee):
In short, both GFS and ECM show the storm following the same track, although the ECM model has landfall earlier (Wednesday Morning) whereas GFS has landfall Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Just a caution here: whenever a storm stalls out for several days, that means steering forces are weak, and what happens next is extremely dependent on the timing and strength of whatever causes it to start moving again. Even though there is run-to-run and model-to-model consistency, they could be consistently wrong! So while it makes sense to monitor this and check your hurricane plans, I wouldn’t get too excited/worried until the storm actually forms and it is clearer the timing of the move to the northeast towards Florida or Cuba.
No significant threat/risk to the Frogmore Metropolitan Area (Savannah, Hilton Head, and Beaufort) or environs (rest of GA/SC) at this time (or likely ever).
The Pacific remains very active. The worst of Man-Yi stayed south of Guam, and the storm is now headed towards the Philippines …
Usagi will be off the north coast of Luzon tomorrow…
For perspective, here are the tracks of the last two and next two storms:
