Milton continues to strengthen, becoming a hurricane this afternoon and starting to move eastward. Here’s the 5pm NHC forecast track, warnings, and IR satellite image:
From a forecast standpoint a few things have changed. Here are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Milton (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The storm is still on track to make landfall as a powerful storm near Tampa on Wednesday, while curving to the east north east, taking it across Central Florida (including Orlando and the Rat’s Nest). That hasn’t changed, but the intensity forecast, which for reasons discussed earlier is complex, is leaning towards rapid intensification. NHC now has the storm becoming a Category Four storm by Tuesday. Another factor is as the wind field becomes elongated due to the interaction with the front driving the storm to the northeast, although the storm should weaken the wind field will expand and produce damaging winds across a wide area, much like Helene did in Georgia. That’s bad news.
Will do a longer post and more detailed impact forecast in the morning. Meanwhile, those in Central Florida should prepare for a major event – on the coasts (definitely the west, and probably areas of the east coast as well) there will be widespread evacuations. Inland should prepare for extended power outages. Follow the advice of your local emergency managers. For tourists, it’s probably time to get ready to leave first thing tomorrow if not this evening, to get out of the way of the locals who will need to make preparations.
Note again there are no signs in the forecast that this storm will have any significant impacts in coastal Georgia or South Carolina, or inland Georgia and North Carolina still recovering from Helene. It might brush the Gulf coast areas in the Big Bend with gusty wind and rain, and of course the west coast of Florida was brushed by Helene and is still recovering, so this will be many times worse there.
Quick note on coastal Georgia rivers: The Ogeechee at Eden should crest in the morning …
and further south water levels should peak by Tuesday or so at the “moderate” flood stages. So these are the “usual” floods close to the river. Not great if you are right on the rivers, but not a widespread threat like Debby.
Honestly, after Helene the more updates the better. My son and his family live about 35 miles South of Tampa. 🥹
We r 35 miles North of Tampa and boarding up our entry door and put hurricane shutters on every window. Everyone stay safe and may God have mercy on us all