At 5pm Monday NHC has decided that PTC Five meets the criteria for being a tropical system, and in addition has winds strong enough to be classified as a Tropical Storm, so it gets the next name on the list: Ernesto. Yes, somewhere in this mess is a center of circulation …
Other than the upgrade, the forecast hasn’t really changed a lot. Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Ernesto (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The expectation is still that Ernesto will cross the Leeward Islands tomorrow and then hit the Virgin Islands with rain and tropical storm force winds. It could cause several hundred million in damage across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and NHC notes the risk of flash floods and mudslides in the mountainous terrain.
After than, the track forecast is to hit Bermuda, where it could be a significant hurricane and cause a lot of damage. That’s five days out and a lot can happen before then, but is concerning.