Potential Tropical Cyclone Five has not gained significant organization overnight, although it is still forecast to become a tropical storm (will get the name Ernesto) before it crosses the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and probably skims the eastern side of Puerto Rico. For the official word, here are the links to the Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Tropical storm watches are now up across the region …
The forecast models are pretty consistent for a system that lacks a distinct center. The NHC forecast is in the cluster of guidance from the various regional models and ECM, which has the storm making a fairly sharp northward turn over or near Puerto Rico, although the primary GFS now has it passing over the east tip of the Dominican Republic. Here is the latest TAOS(tm) TC impact estimate:
So the bottom line as of this morning is that the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for a tropical storm. There is no realistic threat to the mainland US for now, or likely ever, to be confirmed in three days when the storm turns.
The impacts of Debby persist. Water levels are slowly decreasing across coastal Georgia and South Carolina as rivers are cresting.
Unfortunately there was rain within the Ogeechee river basin yesterday afternoon, upwards of an inch in places, which will slow down the recovery. The “crest” at Richmond Hill in particular is pretty flat, so significant areas will remain flooded until the weekend most likely.
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