update: advisories started on TD Two Key Messages regarding Tropical Depression Two (en Español: Mensajes Claves).
Our first serious tropical cyclone of the Atlantic season looks to form today. The 2pm ET Tropical Weather Outlook has some important guidance for those in the Lesser Antillies:
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of that region tonight or early Saturday.
While there isn’t an official forecast track yet, here is what the impact swath looks like in this award winning graphic using the the GFS model forecast. This is what the initial forecast should look like, which we will probably get at 5pm this evening:
On this track economic impacts on the islands would amount to $200 to $500 million, with about 3.7 million people within the tropical storm wind impact zone. That can and will change as the storm consolidates and the official forecast is issued, although the modeling and track forecasts are pretty consistent at this stage, as can be seen in this plot of the major track models:
There isn’t a realistic threat to the US mainland at this point, although the track is now uncomfortably close to Puerto Rico and the USVI – so if you are there time to start watching. And if you are around the Barbados, Grenade, St. Vincent, up to St. Lucia region, probably time pay attention to local emergency managers and to start prepping.
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