TLDR: Over the last 24 hours Invest AL92 has become Tropical Depression Two and is now Tropical Storm Beryl, by Sunday morning will likely be a Hurricane and looks to track rapidly just south of Barbados and across St. Vincent on Monday as a strong Cat 2/Cat3. After that, it will likely track just south of Haiti, with Jamaica and the Cayman Islands under threat from a weaker storm but the forecast is fuzzy that far out.
Yesterday’s depression is today’s tropical storm and likely tomorrow’s hurricane. Here are the GOES meso1 views at 6:30am Saturday in visible and infrared temperatures (on the left, colder is stronger convection); as always, click to embiggen:
And here is the TAOS/TC impact swath and estimate for the next five days, based on the official NHC forecast:
As always and by far, your best source for information is the National Hurricane Center, and a great summary is found in the Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The key take-aways from the latest forecast are this is likely to become a strong storm for this time of year and location (Windward Islands), so from Grenada north to Dominica, especially the southern end including Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, needs to prepare for a major hurricane landfall on Monday. Beryl is moving rapidly, so this shouldn’t be a huge rain event, although on the mountainous islands flash floods are always a risk. The main impacts are likely to be wind and coastal wave/surge damage. As noted below, the forecast is for a 95 knot storm, which is on the verge of a Category 3, and the models are enthusiastic about it being stronger, so if you are in this region please take it seriously. Economic impacts will likely be hundreds of millions on the islands directly in the path of the storm.
The forecast for the next couple of days is pretty straightforward. Beryl is in favorable conditions with lots of energy and strong, consistent steering. The major track model families are remarkably consistent out to around day five:
No realistic threat to the US mainland at this point, but Puerto Rico/USVI should watch for wobbles as it is passing just south and they might catch some fringes. The Dominican Republic and southern Haiti, and as well as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, should be watching and “preparing to prepare” as this is a fast moving storm. It should weaken as it enters the Western Caribbean but too early to tell as the exact track/speed will control that.
Elsewhere (link to NHC Tropical Weather Outlook), there is a system over Yucatan that NHC is watching and has given a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression, but it would likely be brief and either way the main threat is from rain regardless of development. There is another wave behind Beryl that is given a slightly higher chance of development (50%). Would likely follow a similar track, although way too early to say much about it.
If you want to get this commentary reliably, the best way is to subscribe by email. It’s free, but you can also donate to keep them going when you subscribe below, or at this link (click).