As expected Beryl is developing rapidly, becoming a hurricane yesterday evening. It is already an impressive storm both visually and on Infrared, with the IR cloud tops cooling rapidly as the core warms, a powerful indication of strengthening (as usual click any image to see full size, um, embiggen):
The forecast remains an “easy” one as far as hurricanes go. For the official word, check NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Beryl is in a favorable environment with powerful “steering” over the next couple of days. Here is the impact swath using the NHC forecast and my TAOS/TC model:
Beryl is now forecast to become a Category Four hurricane as it passes just south of Barbados tomorrow morning. The NHC forecast based simulation shows the most damaging winds of the small but powerful storm staying south of Barbados and St. Lucia, with highest winds passing directly over St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada on Monday. A major caution here: a slight wobble, or slightly larger than expected wind field could bring severely damaging conditions to St. Lucia, Barbados, or Tobago. Dangerous storm, take it seriously. Beryl is moving so fast rain totals should remain moderate, but flash flooding in mountainous areas is always a factor on the islands. But by far wind and high waves are going to be the big threats. There are “only” 75 thousand people within the hurricane force wind forecast at the moment, so the damage estimates are somewhat low dollar wise – under $250 Million – but this will be a devastating event for anyone unfortunate to be in the relatively narrow swath. And again a slight wobble north or slightly larger wind radii could easily cause severe impacts to Barbados and St. Lucia as well, so everyone in this region should prepare for the worst.
After sweeping through the Windward Islands, Beryl is forecast to rapidly track through the empty reaches of the central Caribbean before passing just south of Haiti, reaching Jamaica mid-day Tuesday. Here is the next potentially dangerous situation. Jamaica is forecast to be only 100km north of the storm track. Typically, that would place it within the swath of damaging winds, but Beryl is still forecast to be a small if powerful storm at that point. I’m somewhat skeptical it will still be that small, but based on the official forecast impacts should be moderate. However, as NHC cautions, the forecast becomes fuzzier as time progresses and even a direct hit on Jamaica is very possible at this point which, if the storm maintains the forecast strength, would be devastating – think Gilbert (1988) levels of damage. So Jamaica needs to begin serious preparations for this storm.
The forecast tracks are really pretty consistent – but that doesn’t mean we know for sure where the storm is going. Here are the major model tracks this morning:
On almost all of these scenarios, the rest of the Greater Antilles should only see high waves on their southern shores, so Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, etc. should not be in danger (but keep watching for something weird until is passes Tuesday). Same for the Paradise of Cuba and the outpost of Imperialism Guantanamo (don’t freak out, inside joke).
Again, note Jamaica, and be aware given the small size of the storm a 20 mile shift is a big deal, and the uncertainty at this point is at least 5 or 6 times that. Next up will likely be Yucatan, but that’s too far out to say much about other than “start watching carefully”. And some will note the storm entering the Gulf (the tracks running across western Cuba are not very likely, the cluster hitting Yucatan are the ones to watch at this point).
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