TLDR: a disturbance in the Western Caribbean will track over Yucatan/Belize and cause some rain, might briefly develop in the Bay of Campeche and dump more rain on Mexico/South Texas. Of more interest is a tropical wave about halfway across the Atlantic is tracking towards the Windward Island and will likely become a tropical depression this weekend and perhaps a hurricane in five days, something the Caribbean should watch.
The official NHC “Tropical Weather Outlook” is at this link. There are two areas tagged this morning, but no “magic words” so your default reaction outside the Caribbean should probably be “meh, it’s summer”. But if you need more, or want a distraction from the clown car of a circus aspiring to be a presidential election, read on! The first is mostly a potential rain/flash flood event even if it technically becomes as depression, as did Alberto. Almost same setup and circumstances, although it seems this one is on a more southerly track and may not dump on Texas as much. The second is more interesting – let’s take a closer look.
The wave is in a westerly flow pattern just to the south of the dry, dusty air coming off of the coast of Africa. This has allowed strong convection and circulation to develop.
The computer models are pretty consistent recently developing the wave into a tropical system of some kind. The latest GFS run is pretty enthusiastic, as can be seen here spinning up the storm to a hurricane in about four days as it hits the southern Windward Islands …
The other model tracks are pretty consistent in terms of both track and intensity. Here is what the major model tracks look like … note AL94 (the system approaching central America) on the left, and AL95 on the right mid-ocean.
And here is the forecast intensity, showing a Category one or two hurricane approaching Barbados/St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada early next week:
So this may be a real threat to the Islands. Although the latest (8am) NHC TWO does not have any magic words, I expect to see “interests in the Windward Islands should monitor this system” to appear shortly, and if things continue as forecast, advisories and tracking to start over the weekend, so if you are in that area a review of your supplies and plans today or tomorrow makes sense. Longer term, the system looks track through the central or southern Caribbean but may be a problem for Jamaica and Central America in 7-10 days, but way too early to speculate on that. The mainland US can safely “meh” this one, Puerto Rico/USVI might catch some fringes if it spins up and if it stays on this track. No threat as of yet but for sure check you plans, insurance, and supplies before it (potentially) gets real.
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