Polo and Mexico, Nolo and Hawai’i, Surigae and Okinawa

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Busy tropical map this morning, with three major events developing.

Map displaying a global summary of tropical cyclones, showing locations and names of active storms as of September 24, 2026, based on National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center data.
As always, click any graphic to embiggen.

Hurricane Polo remans a powerful storm, just off the coast of Mexico. Here are links to NHC’s Key messages regarding Hurricane Polo (en Español: Mensajes Claves). As warned yesterday, the forecast is looking more like a landfall in Baja. Here is the impact swath using my TAOS(tm)/TC model:

Map showing basic storm impacts for Tropical Cyclone POLO in the North Pacific Ocean, detailing affected areas, estimated economic impact, and wind swath colors indicating damage levels.

Tracking and intensity estimates keep Polo a powerful storm as it curves offshore then back towards Baja:

Satellite imagery showing the primary track models for a weather system near Mexico, labeled with various meteorological model paths and data metrics.
Graph depicting the intensity guidance for storm EP172026 over a forecast period of 120 hours, with intensity measured in knots. Various colored lines represent different forecasting models, showing a decline in intensity over time. Dashed lines indicate thresholds for hurricane and tropical storm categories.

Farther west, the forecasts show Tropical Storm Nolo to continue to rapidly intensify and reach major hurricane strength as it curves just south of the Big Island. There is a hurricane watch up for the island of Hawai’i, here are CPHC’s Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Nolo (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and my impact map based on their forecast and my TAOS(tm)/TC model:

CPHC’s intensity forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, which is typical in these situations as they don’t want to be on the low side. Here’s the tracking and intensity forecast graphs:

Satellite image showing a hurricane in the ocean with various colored lines indicating model track forecasts and a table of forecast data.
Line graph showing intensity guidance for a tropical system over a 120-hour forecast period. The Y-axis represents intensity in knots, while the X-axis represents forecast hours. Multiple colored lines represent different forecasting models, with a solid black line indicating the overall forecast track. There are dashed lines marking hurricane and tropical storm intensity thresholds.

With this forecast the biggest threat (or, if you are a PROFESSIONAL surfer, opportunity) are waves, wind at higher elevations and ridge lines, and rain. The rain is always a problem on a mountainous island for flash flooding and landslides.

Tropical Storm Surigae should become a typhoon, and is threatening Okinawa and the Ryuku Islands …

Map showing the storm impacts of Typhoon Surigae (WP252026) in the Philippine Sea, detailing peak wind swath with corresponding damage levels and economic impact estimates.

Kadena Air Base should expect a brush-by early next week.

Continuing our global tour, a tropical depression is making landfall in India this morning …

Map showing basic storm impacts for storm ONE in the Bay of Bengal, including estimated damage levels and affected areas in India and surrounding regions.

Impacts should be somewhat minor, but there are about half a million people in the hazard zone, and the limited infrastructure is always a risk of bad things happening.

Finally, Atlantic storms are of the fish and fish related interests variety (Fay), or weak systems (AL90, near the Canary Islands) …

Map showing the projected paths of tropical systems, including 'FAY' and 'INVEST AL90', over the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern United States, with model tracks indicated in various colors.

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