Yesterday Invest area AL97 went from potential tropical cyclone to tropical depression to tropical storm. In this morning’s forecast discussion, NHC worries it could actually become a hurricane before landfal. Here are their Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Edouard (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and this is my forecast impact map by running their forecast through my TAOS(tm) TC/Lachesis impact model:
Although the current intensity is pegged at 35 knots (40mph, a minimal tropical storm), NHC forecasts a significantly stronger storm at landfall (55 KT 65 MPH) and frets in the 5am ET discussion that Edouardo could become a hurricane. They note the positives – low shear, high sea surface temperature in the ever malodorous Gulf, and a compact core staying over water. They also cite the HFS-A and HMON models. Speaking of which, here are the model tracks (left) and intensity forecasts (right) this morning:
On the other hand, the rapid intensification guidance from RAMMB notes the convection (measured by could top temperature) is currently unfavorable, and the humidity very unfavorable. It is very dry around the storm, such as the orange/brown air seen around the storm on the GOES-East mid level water vapor images …
I understand NHC’s unease, given the proximity to shore and landfall only hours away, but am skeptical. I suspect Eduardo will intensify, but won’t rapidly intensify into a hurricane and if it does, the area of hurricane force winds should be quite small. But those on the immediate coast would be prudent to prepare for at least high-end tropical storm in the hours remaining before landfall. We’ll find out for sure later today …
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