The global tropical cyclone map is busy this morning, but at the moment only two of the storms are significant threats: Tropical Storm Moke near Hawai’i, and Typhoon Saudel tracking towards Okinawa. But, since the majority of readers are in the Atlantic region, and the Profits of Doom are in full chat, we’ll start there:
Of the three blobs of doom, none have a lot of chance of development over the next week (#1 will be gone by Sunday, probably #2 as well although it might have a brief window as a fish storm). The one in the far eastern Atlantic (off of Africa) has a bit more long term chance, but any speculation on that is just click-bait because there are about as many factors against as for. Now on to the real stuff, out in the Pacific.
Tropical Storm Moke should stay well south of the Hawaiian Islands, but rain from the system could cause up to a foot of rain on the higher elevations of the Big Island as it passes by late this weekend. This will exacerbate the impacts from Hurricane Lala, which is exiting to the North …
The other threat is in the West Pacific, where Typhoon Saudel is leaving the Northern Mariana Islands and treking across the Philppine Sea towards Okinawa.
The forecast for the track and intensity has a good bit of uncertainty in it at the later period, in part because of interactions with two other tropical systems, TD18W and INVEST area WP97 … so we’ll just have to wait another couple of days to see how this starts to sort out. The JTWC track above is at the high end of the intensity guidance, most objective aids show the storm as weaker by then.
One last local note, I’m sure everybody locally was relieved at the lower temperatures yesterday, and this morning is outright pleasant … notice the black line (this morning) is way below the previous days, and yesterday (red) is well below the orange lines of Wednesday and Thursday, both of which hit 100 F air temperature:
Might get some thunderstorms this afternoon, unfortunately none of the rain reached the coast last night:
If you appreciate the blog, the best way to get it is to subscribe to the emails. You can subscribe and also donate to keep it going at this link. Many thanks to those who have contributed to keep the blog going!
You can also follow us on Musk’s Madhouse X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Fakebook if that is your preferred social media quagmire. But be aware that social media algorithms don’t like to show you posts in chronological order. They “upgrade” sensationalist material, and “downgrade” posts that have outside links in order to keep you on their platform, so it’s not a great way to get weather warnings or news (or anything other than a variety of nervous twitches for that matter).