Typhoon Mekkhala formed in the West Pacific over the weekend, and expected to become a powerful Super Typhoon (Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale) before turning northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands.
Mekkhala is an impressive storm this morning (evening in Okinawa). Here’s the view from Himawari 9:
Currently at 115kts (212 kph, Lower end Cat 4), it should continue to intensify in the short term. However, as it turns to the northeast (recurves), it should encouter drier air and wind shear, and begin to weaken. The current JWC forecast has the storm down to a minimal typhoon/hurricane as it passes Kadena Air Base on Okinawa. The models are somewhat tight on tracking (note Invest WP94 behind Mekkhala to the east) …
but disagree a good bit on intensity, with ECMF trashing the intensity much faster than GFS. Will be watching closely as the storm makes gets closer to Naha/Okinawa Friday, as well as potential impacts on the main islands of Japan next weekend.
If you appreciate the blog, the best way to get it is to subscribe to the emails. You can subscribe and also donate to keep it going at this link. Many thanks to those who have contributed to the blog!
You can also follow us on Musk’s Madhouse X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that is your preferred social media quagmire. But be aware that social media algorithms don’t show you posts in chronological order, “upgrade” sensationalist material, and “downgrade” posts that have outside links in order to keep you on their platform, so it’s not a great way to get weather warnings.