Typhoons in the Pacific, elsewhere quiet

We have two typhoons tracking near Japan today, Kadena AB (Okinawa) is at TCCOR-3 in anticipation of Mekkhala (WP072026). Here’s the latest overview …

Map showing the primary track models for tropical systems Mekkhala and Higos near East Asia, with various forecast paths and model details.
click any image to embiggen.

Mekkhala is rapidly weakening after briefly surging in intensity. It will likely be below hurricane strength as it passes Okinawa. Here’s the impact swath using my TAOS(tm) model, based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast:

Map showing the projected storm impacts of Typhoon Mekkhala, highlighting areas affected in the East China Sea and surrounding regions, with wind swath and economic impact estimates.

As noted all of the major intensity models are forecasting a continuing weakening …

Graph depicting intensity guidance for tropical systems, showing forecasted intensity in knots over 120 hours. Multiple lines represent different forecasting models, with dashed lines indicating hurricane and tropical storm thresholds.

By the time it reaches the big islands of Japan it should be just rain and gusty winds. The other storm, Higos, should stay offshore (and well away from the Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa). It is forecast to stay below hurricane strength …

There are a couple of invest areas in the east pacific, but if they develop (50%) they should be fish storms.

Satellite image of the Pacific Ocean showing areas of potential tropical development, marked as INVEST EP94, with two regions highlighted in orange indicating a 50% chance of development.

Atlantic is quiet.


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