Sun and Tropics Quiet, the river flows

Although there was a big flare this morning, it was directed away from Earth, so the Earth’s magnetic field is returning to normal after the last few days of excitement. Here is the 48 hour plot, black line (with red showing rapid fluctuations) is last 24 hours, dark gray is Wednesday, and light gray is Tuesday when the big CME hit …

Polar plot displaying the GOES 19 magnetometer data, showing Earth's magnetic field variations with the Sun's position indicated.

Nothing in the tropics at the moment anywhere in the world, not even any invests or watch areas.

There is a notorious “atmospheric river” flowing into the US West Coast, as happens this time of year:

Satellite image showing an atmospheric river flowing towards the US West Coast, with annotations indicating the path.

So there are flood watches and warnings up for SoCal, and a winter storm warning in the mountains where the precipitation is falling as snow (the reddish orange on the CA/NV border) … left is radar, right is precip type (click to embiggen):

Jamaica, Vietnam, and The Philippines are all recovering from recent hurricanes/typhoons/floods/earthquakes/all-of-the-above. There was a flurry of stories over the last day or so that Tehran (Iran) might have to be evacuated due to an ongoing drought that is causing the reservoirs to dry up. It is true that they are in a 50 year drought, but Iran has access to water resources that are the envy of many in the region. This is a classic case of a natural event turning in to a disaster by poor decision making by human “leaders.” But before anybody in the US gets too smug, ask folks in NC about the Helene response, or better yet how folks in the lower ninth ward of New Orleans are doing 20 years after Katrina …


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