Philippines in the crosshairs – again; Vietnam floods; Atmospheric Rivers (4 Nov)

The Philippines is in the tracks of two systems again …

Satellite image showing the forecasted paths of Typhoon Kalmaegi and another system labeled as Thirty-Two in the Asian region.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (called Tino there as the Philippines weather agency uses its own names) is exiting the Philippines, leaving at least three dead and more major flooding. This is the same area that was hit with an M6.9 earthquake in September, and has had catastrophic flooding. The failing flood control system is causing political turmoil and instability in the country, with some of the impacts being blamed on corruption in the government resulting in substandard infrastructure.

Map showing the projected path and impacts of Typhoon Kalmaegi in Southeast Asia, highlighting affected areas and wind swath.

Next up for Kalmaegi is Vietnam, where there has also been catastrophic flooding already over the last week. Kalmaegi is forecast to dump an additional foot (31cm) of rain in central Vietnam on the current forecast track, adding to the misery.

Behind Kalmaegi is Tropical Depression Thirty-two, which formed yesterday east of the Philippines and is tracking towards the northern part of the country. It will likely become a typhoon in the next few days before reaching land. More on that as it develops.


It’s funny how “terms of art” in a given field suddenly crop up everywhere in popular reporting. One that seems to be more frequent recently is “atmospheric river.” An atmospheric river is pretty much what is says: a very moist region of the atmosphere that sets up and streams over one geographic area. In the case of the Pacific Northwest, these often happen when a strong low pressure system comes in off the Gulf of Alaska and the counter-clockwise circulation streams moist Pacific air across the U.S. West coast. That is forecast to happen over the next few days, with a jet of wet air slamming into the coast and, when it hits the mountains, dumping a lot of rain …

A weather map showing atmospheric pressure systems, wind patterns, and moisture levels in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States.
River (light green/purple) streaming in to west coast

Not unusual, but it gives the TV folks something dramatic to talk about when they aren’t obsessing over the Fujiwhara effect.


If you like this kind of commentary and analysis, by far the best way is to subscribe to the emails, which is the only really reliable way to get them. The commentary, maps, and snark (when appropriate) should be expanding to winter storms and other topics later this year. You can also donate to keep it going at this the same link, donations are responsible for the new automated maps subscribers are seeing previews of.

You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media malise.

Leave a Reply