Much to the exasperation of the tropical clickbait community, NHC has not flagged the wave coming across the Atlantic, even though long range models show something forming. The reason, of course, is those models have no skill at tropical forecasting that far out. However, this afternoon, NHC tagged the disturbance and doomscrollers can bask in the yellow glow of officialdom:
The probs are low as of yet, but as the Tropical Weather Outlook notes, conditions might be favorable when the wave gets there. The 12Z GFS shows the thing passing north of Puerto Rico as a strong storm, the previous run was over the Greater Antillies as a disorganized system. ECM doesn’t seem excited. We’ll have to wait and see what (if anything) develops.
I won’t show the model graphics, dramatic as they are, because they really are worthless at this point, maybe by Sunday. Rest of the world is quiet other than a few disturbances with moderate chances of spinning up (of course the humans keep trying to kill each other for some reason).
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