The NHC’s “Tropical Weather Outlook” has two blobs on it this morning. Disturbance #2 (the northern one) may be safely ignored. The second one is of a bit more interest …
Disturbance #1 doesn’t have an invest ID or dedicated model tracking, but GFS and ECM’s IAFS show something spinning up after the wave enters the eastern Caribbean. Here is what GFS is showing for a week from today (Oct 24th):
So it’s possible something may spin up. The interesting thing is that the expected steering at that point will cause any incipient storm to “stall” south of Puerto Rico, then move northwest across the Virgin Island, PR, or the Dominican Republic as it intensifies and scoots out to the mid Atlantic. But that’s a long way out – it could keep going west, or not even spin up. No magic words in the outlook so nothing to really do or worry about at this point.
There is a real invest off the coast of Mexico, expected to skirt the coast, and another invest in the West Pacific that may cross the Philippines, both with a moderate chance of spinning up.
Thank you from Savannah
Thank you! Your dedication is much appreciated!