Tropical Storm Jerry forms out of AL95

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At 11am ET NHC started advisories on Tropical storm Jerry: Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Jerry. Not much to add from this morning’s discussion when it was just AL95, but for the record here is the first forecast impact track from my TAOS(tm) model, based on the official forecast:

Map illustrating the forecast impact track of Tropical Storm Jerry, showing regions affected and potential wind damage levels across the Caribbean and North Atlantic Ocean.
click to embiggen.

Also, Priscilla is almost a “Major” hurricane now since is expected to cross the Cat 3 threshold today, and is causing some wind and rain to south Baja already.

Map showing storm impacts for Hurricane Priscilla, with forecasted wind swath and damage estimates along the southern Baja California coast.

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