Looking at three storms this morning. Jerry still looks to just brush the Leeward Islands. Halong looks to just brush Japan. Priscilla will curve inland over Baja, potentially being problematic by pumping rain far inland.
First, because it is closest to the Center of All The Things (Frogmore), as the sun comes up Jerry isn’t very organized this morning, although there is a flare of confection in the last hour or so. Left to right is Visual, right is Infrared. As always, click any image or animation to embiggen.
NHC still expects Jerry to strengthen: Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Jerry (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and there are watches still up for the Leeward Islands:
And here is the impact swath in plain English, using my TAOS(tm) model, based on the official forecast:
Bottom line is the Islands might get gusty winds, rain (couple of inches, so potential for flash flooding in gullies and valleys), and waves, but below tropical storm conditions – if this track holds up. So be prudent follow the advice of local emergency management.
Also of concern is Pricilla, here are NHC’s Key messages regarding Hurricane Priscilla (en Español: Mensajes Claves).
Tropical Storm watches are up for southern Baja. Again biggest concern aside for waves right on the coast is the potential for rain and flash flooding not only in Baja and northern Mexico after landfall, but that moisture might move up into the US Southwest into the weekend, carrying with it a flash flood risk (especially in mountainous areas). Will look closer at that later in the week if it still seems to be in the cards.
In the West Pacific, Typhoon Halong is throwing off rain bands and gusty winds on the main island of Honshu, with evacuations and warnings for some of the offshore islands. Here are the overview and TAOS(tm) impact maps:
I’ve seen some noise about a nor’easter like low pressure system potentially developing off the US East Coast. Despite the dramatic graphics, just typical fall stuff as near as I can tell. Here’s the GFS wind and H850 map for , showing Jerry well offshore, and the low right off the mid Atlantic coast …
Note that at this point the thing off the mid-Atlantic coast has higher surface winds over a larger area than Jerry! This is why it is important to keep perspective about storms, names, and hype. For the most part, a 45 mph wind from a named tropical storm feels the same to a tree or your house as a 45 mph wind from a winter storm. (There may some differences for the tree due to time of year, due to wind loading from leaves, water content, etc.). Also beware terminology used in the media, especially the games played with gusts vs. sustained winds, or one minute sustained vs. what is measured at the airport or reported by models.
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