Lots of “Hazardous, not Dangerous”, stuff today as three tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are near land with the worst conditions offshore, and a developing system off the US East Coast is getting a lot of attention.
First the tropics. In the Atlantic, tropical storm Jerry is approaching the northeastern Caribbean. From NHC, Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Jerry (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Tropical storm watches are up for a lot of the islands, as tropical storm conditions are possible today as Jerry brushes by. Here’s the estimated impact swath …
Feel free to ignore AL96, only 10% chance of spinup, its really more extratropical and headed to Greenland.
In the East Pacific, Priscilla is brushing Southern Baja with near tropical storm conditions, and while EP90 will likely spin up, that’s a problem for later. Here’s NHCs Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Priscilla (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The bigger problem is likely to come later, after the storm makes landfall. Here’s the wind impact swath:
The moisture from Priscilla is likely to move across the US Southwest, and may cause some excess rainfall and flash flooding in places (WPC Forecast Summary).
As we have been watching, Typhoon Halong is brushing by Japan. A new storm has formed behind it, Nakri, which looks to follow a nearly identical track just offshore of Honshu …
The front that is moving through the US Southeast looks likely to spawn a nor’easter this weekend, much to the joy of weather doomers. As the WPC summary says, Coastal flooding, high surf, dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds
expected along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts this week. This is a big system, but typical for fall/winter. Here’s the GFS surface map for Saturday afternoon, compare the size of the nor’easter with Jerry …
Bottom line is, as the forecast summary said, some coastal flooding around the time of high tides in the usual places, high surf, and the inevitable rip currents high surf generates. There will be gusty winds, but aside from some limbs down (and, given it’s early fall, a big wet soggy mess of leaves to clean up), shouldn’t be any real damage away from the immediate beaches where erosion may be a problem.
For the Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal GA/SC), the line of showers marking the frontal boundary is just inland, the south end seems weak as of just after 6am …
There are lots of advisories up, including a lake wind advisory over inland South Carolina, a wind advisory south of Brunswick, small craft and coastal flood advisories across much of the area …
Again, to be super clear, when you see “coastal flood advisory” that means right on the immediate coast and marshes where you get flooding during higher than normal tides, not flooding like you get from tropical storms or worse. So unless there is a heavy downpour, which isn’t expected at the moment, not even street flooding even on Abercorn or the other usual spots, so inland areas are not at risk of floods.
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