Got a bunch of tropical systems stalking the world today, seven, fortunately none of them are terribly strong, but still causing problems. Here’s the summary:
Here’s the Atlantic view with watches and warnings:
Overnight NHC started advisories on “Subtropical Storm Karen.” This system is an example of why you have to be careful about hurricane statistics. Although it does have some convection, Karen isn’t really all that tropical, will be short lived, and in past years would not have been tracked as a tropical system because forecasters would not likely have realized it had tropical characteristics (or cared much if they did). It’s in the far northeast Atlantic and not a threat, not even any “key messages” from NHC.
Jerry has not developed much, continuing to be a disorganized tropical storm: Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Jerry (en Español: Mensajes Claves). As you can see here, it doesn’t look like much, with the convection displaced from the center:
Being so broad and disorganized, the main threat is from rain and flash floods, mostly across the Lesser Antilles but even as far away as Puerto Rico as today progresses.
The worst threats are in Mexico today. Two storms (and an ex-storm) are threatening Baja. Although Priscilla is weakening and technically won’t make landfall, the moisture is being drawn up into Mexico and the US Southwest. For someone on the east coast, 2″ of rain is laughable, but in the desert southwest that’s a huge amount of rain, and NWS has posted excess rain outlooks for the region:
Raymond has a compact wind field but will also pump even more moisture up into the region. This storm is more of a wind threat, especially to La Paz and southern Baja:
Japan continues to get the fringes of storms recurving out into the North Pacific. Following Halon, Nakri is also sweeping close enough to Japan to bring impacts to the smaller offshore Islands, and rain bands across the main islands …
The developing non-tropical low pressure system off the coast of the US deserves its own post, so will try to make that happen by mid-morning.
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Thanks for the updates!
Have a good weekend!