There’s been some dramatic graphics spewed in my feeds over a low pressure system brewing off the Georgia coast. It looks to me like a typical fall/winter thing, although it is raising gale warning and coastal flood advisories, and lake wind advisories across central South Carolina …
And here zoomed in a bit on our beloved Frogmore:
On the coast, the high tide going on right now is pushing 10 feet due to the strong onshore winds …
As long as it stays below 10.5 feet, which both this tide and the one tomorrow morning seem likely, to do, impacts should be limited to the “usual suspects.” As a reminder, from the NWS manual:
At 9.5 ft MLLW, minor coastal flooding occurs. Flooding will begin to impact Shipyard Road to Burnside Island. Parts of Ft Pulaski National Monument will begin to flood, including several trails. Flooding will also begin to impact Tybee Island including Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave. In Bryan County, water could breach docks near Ft McAllister and flooding will impact portions of Mill Hill Rd. In Liberty County, flooding impacts the Halfmoon Landing area and Cattle Hammock Rd near Bermuda Bluff subdivision.
At 10.0 ft MLLW, moderate coastal flooding occurs. Shipyard Rd will be impassable, isolating residents on Burnside Island. Water will start to encroach on HW-80 and as the tide gets closer to 10.5 ft MLLW, could begin to cover portions of the roadway. Flooding will expand on Tybee Island and Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave will be impassable. Flooding will also impact Wilmington Island, the Coffee Bluff community, Ossabaw Island, Sapelo Island, and portions of HW-17 south of Darien.
At 10.5 ft MLLW, major coastal flooding occurs. Damaging flooding is expected, expanding along the entire southeast Georgia coast. Flooding will likely cause the closure of HW-80, isolating residents on Tybee Island. Several other island communities will also likely become isolated due to flooded and impassable roadways. On Tybee Island, widespread significant flooding is expected with numerous properties impacted.
Update: It seems the authoritays close US-80 when any water encroaches on the road, and it definitely starts to cover the road at 10.25 rather than 10.5 as the NWS guidance suggests, so expect closures over 10.1 ft.
The heaviest rain looks to stay offshore or north of Frogmore proper, the Charleston suburb of Frogmore may get a lot of rain and a greater chance of both coastal and urban street flooding. Either way, will be breezy and probably rainy all along the coast. The storm itself looks to spin up more on Sunday as it lifts north, here is what the GFS, and European AI!!!!! model are showing using the neat slider thingee:
Notice Jerry is non-existent in the AI!11! model, but still a strong storm in GFS. The ECM Deterministic model splits the difference. The storm looks to bring winds and rain up the mid Atlantic coast early next week, nothing too dramatic, just gusty winds, rain, but no snow/ice so while it’s a nor’easter like storm, not a true New England blow.
The only real exception to the lack of doom are properties right on the ocean, especially the outer banks, which are likely to get hammered again. There is also a chance for some inland flooding in northern SC and North Carolina depending on how much moisture wraps around and is pushed inland.